AIVD: threat against the Netherlands remains high, uncertainty regarding world order
The world is more openly in conflict. Espionage, cyberattacks and economic leads are weapons through which countries demarcate their spheres of influence and promote their interests - if need be at another's expense.
The balance of power is shifting and the question is what the world order will come to look like. For the Netherlands, which owes much of its peace and prosperity to international trade and a world order based on rules, this entails considerable risks. This can be seen in the many threats with which the Netherlands is faced. This is stated by the AIVD in its Annual Report of 2024.
Director general Erik Akerboom: “We are experiencing a shift from a situation in which our safety and security seemed to be a given, to a situation in which this has become the biggest concern for many Western countries. From uncertainty as an exception to uncertainty as a rule. The service makes every effort to tackle the current challenges and to be prepared for geopolitical developments.”
A more aggressive Russia tested the West’s resolve
The biggest shift in ideas about security in Europe is brought on by the threat posed by the Russian regime. In 2024 the Kremlin and its connected networks and organisations took on a more aggressive, brazen, provocative attitude towards European countries. They carried out acts of espionage and carried out cyberattacks. The regime uses sabotage bordering on state terrorism to sow fear in Europe. We also saw acts in the Netherlands which could lead to sabotage. The AIVD and MIVD were able to recognise and stop these in time.
Striving for dominance determined China's actions in 2024
2024 was the first time the AIVD and MIVD directly and publicly attributed a cyberattack on a Dutch defence network to the Chinese state. The attack shows China’s intention of carrying out espionage against the Dutch government and public targets. China moreover joined forces with Russia to ensure that the West's influence in the world decreases. The countries were already cooperating more closely at political, economic, and military levels, although they sometimes have different interests. Although China in principle does not supply weapons and ammunition to Russia, Chinese companies do supply dual-use goods for the Russian war complex, including drones. This made China a direct player where it concerns Europe’s security and a threat against the Netherlands and its allies.
Danger of extremist violence due to increasing polarisation
The war in Gaza also put pressure on the social stability in the Netherlands. The danger of a deeply polarised debate became evident in the riots and use of extremist violence surrounding the football match Ajax against Maccabi Tel Aviv. The violence was not perpetrated by known extremists, but rather by individuals who took matters into their own hands and who in their actions were motivated by an extremist ideological framework.
Terrorist threat from three angles
The threat of jihadist attacks further increased in 2024. We witnessed the return of incited and directed attacks in Europe. Last year jihadists and other extremist Muslims carried out eleven attacks in Europe. A few dozen attack plots were thwarted by intelligence and security services. For example around the UEFA European Football Championship in Germany and the Olympics in France. The AIVD was able to contribute to several of such disruptions.
Attacks by right-wing terrorist attacks are also considered a possibility. The AIVD disrupted several right-wing terrorist threats. In these cases it mainly concerns young people, including minors. For the first time ever, moreover, supporters of anti-institutional extremism in the Netherlands have been charged with terrorist offences. They had concrete plans to carry out so-called citizen’s arrests on a mayor and police officers and were in possession of weapons.
Criminal networks developed advanced capabilities
Criminal networks use their own specialised ‘intelligence teams’ to observe persons they view as a threat, such as those in the legal system or journalists. This better enables the networks to carry out attacks. Criminal intelligence teams sometimes infiltrate parts of the government in order to obtain information. AIVD investigation concretely contributes to preventing such attacks. And that the government can adjust policy and legislation in order to take a stand against criminal undermining.
Geopolitical unrest requires AIVD's focus and flexibility
In a time of escalating tensions the AIVD provides the government with independent intelligence on the security situation in the world. Last year many AIVD investigations were related to the changing balance of power in the world and to international conflicts. Over the past years threats sometimes developed at such a rapid pace that the AIVD had to set up new investigations and shift its priorities in a short space of time. Especially when it regards non-military conflicts between states, the intelligence and security services help safeguard the national security of the Netherlands. With its intelligence the AIVD helps the government understand the intentions and plans of other countries, even when these are covert.